Calculator / States / Arizona
Solar panel cost and payback in Arizona
Measured production, your actual utility's filed rates, and honest payback maths with no federal tax credit applied - because for a home bought today there is not one.
The Residential Clean Energy Credit was terminated for home purchases after 2025-12-31, so the $25,500 above is what a Arizona household actually pays - not a headline price with a rebate quietly subtracted. A quote that still shows the credit is overstating your return by about that amount, which on these numbers is roughly 5 years of savings.
What solar costs in Arizona at different bills
Worked at 1769 kWh per kW per year and $0.1106 per kWh, the midpoints across the 2 metros below, at $2.55 per watt installed.
| Monthly bill | System | Cost | Year-1 saving | Payback | 25-year net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $120 | 7.4 kW | $18,777 | $1,219 | 13.3 yrs | +$21,739 |
| $200 | 10.0 kWroof limit; covers 81% | $25,500 | $1,656 | 13.3 yrs | +$29,523 |
| $300 | 10.0 kWroof limit; covers 54% | $25,500 | $1,656 | 13.3 yrs | +$29,523 |
Exported surplus is valued at zero throughout, so these are floors rather than best cases. Where fully covering the bill would need more panels than a roof holds, the row shows the largest system that actually fits and the share of your usage it covers - not the lifetime return on an array nobody can build. Your own bill and roof will move them - run your address.
Sunlight and rates by Arizona metro
Straight from NREL PVWatts and the utility rate database, by named utility. This is why one statewide figure does not work.
| Metro | Utility | Production | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | Arizona Public Service Co | 1,757 kWh/kW | $0.1196 |
| Tucson | Tucson Electric Power Co | 1,781 kWh/kW | $0.1015 |
What Arizona pays you for surplus power
Export rate, not net metering
Arizona ended net metering in 2018. Exports are bought at a fixed Resource Comparison Proxy rate, well below what you pay for power.
The Arizona Corporation Commission voted to phase out net metering, replacing it with an export rate based on what utilities pay for large-scale solar. Recent RCP rates are around 7.6 cents per kWh at APS and 6.3 cents at TEP, against retail rates above 10 cents. The rate in force when you apply to interconnect is locked for ten years. Arizona has excellent sun, so systems still perform well, but the gap between what your power is worth to you and what it is worth exported is a real reason to size for your own consumption rather than for maximum production.
Checked 2026-08-21 against Arizona Corporation Commission; APS and TEP export rate tariffs. Export rules are being rewritten across the country, so verify before you sign. Current incentive detail for Arizona is maintained at DSIRE, which we link to rather than copy precisely because it changes.
Is solar worth it in Arizona?
Worth doing, with realistic expectations. A roof can carry enough for 81% of what a $200-a-month household in Arizona uses, not the lot. Power at $0.1106 per kWh is cheap, so a $200 bill in Arizona represents a great many kilowatt-hours -- more than 12.3 kW of panels would be needed to cover them all. The 10.0 kW that does fit costs $25,500 and returns about $29,523 over 25 years, paying for itself in roughly 13.3 years. Before enlarging the system, reducing what you use costs nothing and shrinks the array you need.
Your own bill and roof move this more than the state average does, and Arizona households vary widely on both. Run your ZIP code through the calculator for numbers worked from your own utility rather than a Arizona midpoint. It asks for no email address and nobody will call you.
Arizona solar questions
What is the RCP export rate?
The Resource Comparison Proxy is what Arizona replaced net metering with. Rather than crediting exports at the retail price you pay, utilities buy them at a rate benchmarked to large-scale solar - recently around 7.6 cents per kWh at APS and 6.3 cents at TEP. You still pay full retail for power you draw from the grid, so the two are no longer symmetrical.
What happens when my ten-year rate lock ends?
The RCP rate in force when you apply to interconnect is locked for ten years. After that you move to whatever rate applies then, and the trend since 2018 has been downward. Any Arizona payback figure that runs 20 or 25 years is implicitly assuming something about years 11 onwards - ours avoids the problem by valuing exports at zero throughout.
Is solar still worth it in Arizona without net metering?
Often yes, because Arizona has the strongest sunlight of any state covered here. But the economics now favour using your own generation rather than exporting it, which means sizing to your consumption pattern rather than to your annual total. An oversized Arizona system exports a lot of power at 7 cents that you would have valued at 12.