Solar cost and payback by state
Each guide uses real NREL production data and filed utility rates for several metros in that state, plus its actual export-compensation rules checked against the state regulator. No federal tax credit is applied anywhere, because for a home bought today there is none.
A state guide is only worth publishing where we have verified data behind it: real rates for named utilities, and export rules confirmed against a primary source rather than a solar marketing site. Padding this list out to fifty with national averages and unchecked policy claims would look more complete and be worth less. The calculator works for any US address regardless of whether your state has a guide here.
| State | Sunlight | Electricity | Payback | 25-year net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 1757-1781 | $0.1015-$0.1196 | 13.3 yrs | $29,523roof-sized system |
| California | 1596-1669 | $0.1303-$0.1635 | 13.2 yrs | $38,405 |
| Connecticut | 1250-1263 | $0.1267-$0.159 | 18.5 yrs | $15,614roof-sized system |
| Florida | 1456-1566 | $0.104-$0.124 | 16.9 yrs | $18,613roof-sized system |
| Massachusetts | 1238-1299 | $0.1313-$0.1491 | 18.9 yrs | $14,723roof-sized system |
| Nevada | 1662-1752 | $0.1105-$0.1215 | 13.2 yrs | $30,347roof-sized system |
| New Jersey | 1301-1376 | $0.1488-$0.1488 | 14.8 yrs | $26,936roof-sized system |
| New Mexico | 1778-1826 | $0.1187-$0.1231 | 12.2 yrs | $36,528roof-sized system |
| New York | 1198-1285 | $0.1174-$0.2321 | 15.6 yrs | $27,133roof-sized system |
| North Carolina | 1379-1415 | $0.1022-$0.1067 | 20.2 yrs | $9,224roof-sized system |
| Rhode Island | 1291-1336 | $0.1424-$0.1424 | 18.0 yrs | $17,655roof-sized system |
| Texas | 1420-1503 | $0.0924-$0.1098 | 15.7 yrs | $18,840roof-sized system |
Sunlight in kWh per kW of panels per year; electricity in dollars per kWh, showing the range across the utilities we sampled. Payback and net are for a household on a $200 monthly bill at the state midpoint, with exported power valued at zero. Median across these 12 states: 1446.5 kWh/kW and $0.1308 per kWh.
What actually moves the answer
Sunlight matters less than people expect. New Jersey and Massachusetts get materially less sun than Arizona, yet solar is common in both, because what decides payback is the price of the power you stop buying. A weak-sun state with expensive electricity beats a sunny state with cheap electricity almost every time.
The second factor is what your utility pays for surplus. That varies from full retail credit down to nothing at all, and it is being rewritten across the country right now - Arizona ended net metering in 2018, California moved to net billing in 2023, Connecticut replaced it outright in 2022. Each state guide records the current position and the date it was checked.
Every estimate here values exported power at zero regardless, so the figures are floors. If your utility pays well for exports, you do better than shown. See the methodology for the full reasoning.
How to read the table
The payback and net columns are one household, not your household. They assume a $200 monthly bill at the state midpoint rate, a cash purchase, and a system sized to that consumption - capped to what the roof can actually hold, which is why some rows are marked as a roof-sized system rather than the ideal one. Change any of those and the answer moves, sometimes by years.
Treat the two range columns as the more durable information. Sunlight in kWh per kW is a physical fact about the location and barely moves. Electricity price is the range across the utilities sampled in that state, and which end of it you sit on depends on your utility and your tariff - which is worth checking on your own bill before trusting any single figure here.
Where a row says Never, that is the honest output rather than a missing value. If cumulative savings do not overtake the install cost inside 25 years, the model reports never instead of extending the horizon to 40 years until the number turns positive. Now that the federal credit has ended, never is a real and reasonably common answer in states with cheap power.
What no table can tell you
Shading is the largest omission and the most common reason a real installation underperforms its estimate. A single tree that shades the array until mid-afternoon can remove a substantial share of the annual output, and nothing on this page can see it. Roof condition is the second - if the roof needs replacing within a few years, that work has to happen before the panels go on, or come off and go back afterwards.
Also absent: panel upgrades, permits and interconnection fees, battery storage, time-of-use tariffs, financing costs, and any effect on the resale value of your home. State, utility and local incentives are not included either, and where they exist they help. The arithmetic here is the part that can be done honestly from public data; the rest needs somebody on your roof and a quote in your hand.